The Future of the Internet
I have often pondered the question, what will the Internet be like in 5 years time? Will there be an enforcement of strict guidelines and regulations or will it continue to be a mass ‘free for all’, that offers the perfect haven for criminal activity and inadequate providers of products and services. Before I can give my personal views on the future of the Internet, I will first have to analyses the past. I was first introduced to the World Wide Web in 1997 at the time I had left the UK and was working in Seattle.
I paid a small fortune for a steam operated prehistoric computer that took me a whole day to load the operating system, eventually I got the machine working, at last the online world was now at my mercy. I was instantly hooked on the Internet; I don't think I slept much in those first few days. Looking back now the Internet has developed a lot since then. In those early days the big things for me were chat rooms and adult orientated sites, no wonder I was hooked so quickly. Over the next few years the Internet quickly transformed into a business based monster, people with the right knowledge base were making life changing sums of money.
Online businesses where being listed on the world’s stock exchanges, at an alarming rate. Of course amateurs like myself, had to have a dabble, I was convinced all I needed to do was buy a domain name then wait for someone to offer me a million pounds for it, I think I purchased around 40 domains just to make sure. Looking back I was a total uneducated fool, rest assured I was in good company. Anything that grows at such a rapid rate will always have a tendency to fall just as fast. This is exactly what happened to Internet based businesses; in March 2000 the world witnessed in horror as the ‘dot-com’ crash unveiled itself. No one really knows what the exact catalyst for the crash was; some believe it was down to;
• Online businesses although appearing good on paper, were not making any profit
• Most online business had run up large amounts of debt
• The vast majority of online businesses were ran by inexperienced management
Whatever the exact reason, the domino affect kicked in very quickly, even businesses that had sound business models and good long term growth projections had their funding pulled. Shortly after the ‘dot-com’ crash Tim O’ Reilly and Media Live International held a meeting the results of which are now viewed as visionary. Their interpretation was, that far from the Internet ‘crashing’ it was in fact flourishing with new websites and applications appearing on a regular basis. Their meeting was to form the basis of Web 2.0. In 2003, O’ Reilly was proved to be right as the Internet started to find its feet again, however this time it would be stronger and better.
Many lessons had been learned by large corporations in the past, these lessons would hold them in good stead for the future. Businesses that were on the brink of folding started to grow again all be it at a slower pace than previously, QXL is a perfect example of this. From 2003, the Internet has grown at a steady rate. The problem Internet based businesses have always had, is in their visibility, for every genuine business that offers good value for money products or services, there are 3 businesses that are built on smoke and mirrors. The aim of these businesses is simply to be paid the maximum amount for providing the minimum service or selling an item that is flawed or over-valued.
The Golfbidder website has a section that highlights how clever the crooks are now becoming. Currently there is only sketchy geographical binding legislation in place to protect the consumer. One of the current growth areas on the Internet is in the web design and SEO service sectors, this industry is attracting many school leavers to its ranks, so much so that McDonalds and Burger King are currently finding it difficult to recruit staff. However due to the way the Internet is set up a client could commission the services of one of these inexperienced school leavers or worse a criminal and be under the impression he was paying for the services of a professional operator. The term expert and guru are commonly used by service providers, I would be interested to find out who is awarding these auspicious accolades. So, to the future, will Internet businesses be allowed continue operating behind smoke and mirrors or will they be forced to adhere to strict regulations and guidelines, that totally protect the consumer? For this to happen search engines will have to play a huge part by introducing some kind of submission policy, I believe this is about 5 years away. I can see Google having 2 sections, one for business and the other for recreational.
To be listed in the business section, a provider will have to prove their worthiness and be willing to be audited on a regular basis. I personally this will be a huge step forward in the development of the internet. And will give a lot of creditability to online businesses. I do not believe things will continue in the same way they are now.
Pete Arkwright
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